CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-11T02:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-11T02:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33323/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the NE by STEREO A COR2. There is currently no SOHO LASCO imagery for this event due to a data gap from 11/02:36Z to 11/07:12Z. The source of this event is an M1.0 class flare peaking at 2024-09-10T23:50Z and subsequent eruption from AR 3814 (N16W03) as seen in SDO AIA 193, 211 and STEREO A EUVI 304. The flare peaked at 2024-09-10T23:50Z, however the eruption continued through approx. 11/01:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 304. Opening field lines, slight dimming and a possible EUV wave can be seen propagating towards the NE in SDO AIA 193, 211 and STEREO A EUVI 195. Due to the lack of SOHO data available to triangulate the source, there is some degree of uncertainty in the latitude and longitude of this CME. Characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from approx. 7nT to 9nT with an increase in density and a sustained period of southward field from 2024-09-13T17:45Z from 2024-09-13T21:30Z. There is no clear increase in solar wind speed or temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-13T18:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-13T15:49Z (-7.67h, +7.67h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): +3 longitude, +25 latitude Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 initial CME speed: 742.0 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2024-09-11T06:29Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 50k arrival speed: 611 (+/-84) km/s https://helioforecast.space/cmeLead Time: 27.42 hour(s)
Difference: 2.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Christian Moestl (ASWO) on 2024-09-12T14:40Z
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